How one of the Senate’s most well-known conservatives could keep the chamber blue

The most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country might just cost Republicans control of Congress’ upper chamber in an otherwise golden year for the Senate GOP.
A poll released Wednesday found two-term incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in a dead heat with his Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas. The Lone Star candidates have spent a combined total of $128 million this cycle in a state that preferred former President Donald Trump by nearly 6 percentage points in 2020 after reelecting the conservative Cruz by just 2.6 points in 2018.
Democrats are expected to lose control of the Senate in 2025, due, at least in part, to the structural disadvantage of having more of the 34 Senate seats up for election in November held by incumbent Democrats. This year’s election pits the party’s one-seat majority up against a reelection map where multiple Democratic incumbents are fighting the pressures of the presidential race in Republican-leaning states like West Virginia and Montana which appear very likely to flip their Senate seats red.
But while Democrats are also on the defensive in the rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio — as well as the sun belt states of Arizona and Nevada — last minute surges have given the party hope it can expand its map in a bid that has placed Cruz, as well as Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott and Nebraska Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, in surprisingly hot water ahead of the general election.
In September, the Senate Democrat’s campaign arm announced a “multimillion-dollar” investment in Texas and Florida. The move was seen by some as an admission that the party had given up on longtime Montana Sen. Jon Tester, who trails his opponent, former Navy SEAL and aerospace entrepreneur Tim Sheehy, by 8 percentage points in recent polls.
But the infusion of cash precipitated a tightening of both Senate races. Cruz and Scott, two of the most well-known conservative leaders in the Senate, now count on an average polling lead of less than 5 percentage points — uncomfortably close to a margin of victory upset. Scott, Florida’s former governor, faces former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the Sunshine State where Trump won by more than 3 percentage points in 2020.
Republicans have also been caught unawares by the insurgent candidacy of independent union leader Dan Osborn in Nebraska, who is challenging GOP incumbent Debra Fischer in a state Trump won by 19 percentage points. On Monday, The Cook Political Report, downgraded Nebraska’s rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
Osborn, who supports codifying federal abortion rights despite vowing not to caucus with either party, has narrowed his polling deficit to 1 percentage point following a mega fundraising quarter where he netted more than $3 million, prompting the announcement on Monday of a mirror $3 million investment by the Senate GOP leadership PAC in support of Fischer.
But these flickers of hope for Senate Democrats may be all but canceled out by complete uncertainty in the Midwest, including in what used to be referred to as the “Blue Wall.”
Michigan, which hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate in three decades, has seen former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers consistently come within the polling margin of error as he battles over the open seat against Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich.
As in the Michigan race, Wisconsin’s currently blue senate seat is considered a “toss-up” as Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin seeks a third term amid a challenge from businessman Eric Hovde. Polling has the candidates tied in a state President Joe Biden won by just 20,000 votes in 2020.
Another swing state, Pennsylvania, was moved to Cook’s “toss up” category on Monday, where former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick has received millions of dollars in Senate Republican support in his bid to unseat longtime Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.
Casey’s fellow rust-belt Democrat, Sen. Sherrod Brown, also faces an upward climb against his well-funded GOP opponent, businessman Bernie Moreno, in Ohio, where Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2020. The race has received more attention from both major parties than any other with the exception of Texas, with candidates spending a combined total of more than $110 million.
However, the spending showdown has seen Republicans severely outmatched in the sun belt swing states of Arizona and Nevada. The two states have remained in Cook’s “lean democrat” column as Democrats continue to spend more than twice as much as Republicans to keep the vulnerable states blue.
Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen’s advertising spending has dwarfed that of Republican military veteran Sam Brown since Labor Day. And Arizona Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has spent more than the combination of all GOP advertisers, including outside spending groups, in his race against failed GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake for the state’s open Senate seat.
Amid the spending gaps, Rosen and Gallego both hold a stable polling lead of more than 7 percentage points against their Republican challengers.